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The recent economic credit crunch might cause a lot of problems for those of us who love the back of the Previews Catalog. Printing costs are going up cutting the profit margins for these small publishers. Credit is going to be harder for these companies to obtain. Making payroll and paying the other bills could become impossible and more and more small press publishers may fold. Is Virgin the beginning? Are we due for another consolidation of publishers?

jon carroll wrote:The recent economic credit crunch might cause a lot of problems for those of us who love the back of the Previews Catalog. Printing costs are going up cutting the profit margins for these small publishers. Credit is going to be harder for these companies to obtain. Making payroll and paying the other bills could become impossible and more and more small press publishers may fold. Is Virgin the beginning? Are we due for another consolidation of publishers?

We may well see a consolidation of publishers. That may not be a bad thing depending how and why it happens.

By no means do I think such a thing is impossible, but I don't think it will happen--at least on any sort of broad scale.

Portions of the market will certainly contract as economic forces weed out companies that do not have the wherewithal to survive, but the sky isn't falling either.

John, I'm not sure how far back the data you have goes, but was there a severe (or any kind of contraction) 16-17 years ago with the last recession? What about the prior recessions, especially 1980-82?

Certainly things are not going well but, technically, we have not yet entered a recession (although it seems like one is coming relatively soon).

The other thought I had is that don't these concerns come up within the comic community every 10 years or so? Yet we're still here. Maybe they're not always on the economic front, but with comic price increases, print cost increases, etc., they seem sort of ever-present.

Zack, 16-17 years ago there was a pull back but that was as much due to the speculator pull out as anything.

The early 1980s were a continuation of the late 1970;s with the death of the mass market and the rise of the direct market. A lot of the struggling companies folded and their properties were bought by other companies. That's how the DCU came into being as we now it with their purchase of Fawcett, Charlton, etc.

This will be an interesting downturn if there is one. Unlike the early 90's, we are down to one distributor. Unlike the 70's and early 80's, there is no real mass market. The rise of the TPB and webcomic I think is upon us.

zack kruse wrote:By no means do I think such a thing is impossible, but I don't think it will happen--at least on any sort of broad scale.

Portions of the market will certainly contract as economic forces weed out companies that do not have the wherewithal to survive, but the sky isn't falling either.

John, I'm not sure how far back the data you have goes, but was there a severe (or any kind of contraction) 16-17 years ago with the last recession? What about the prior recessions, especially 1980-82?

Certainly things are not going well but, technically, we have not yet entered a recession (although it seems like one is coming relatively soon).

The other thought I had is that don't these concerns come up within the comic community every 10 years or so? Yet we're still here. Maybe they're not always on the economic front, but with comic price increases, print cost increases, etc., they seem sort of ever-present.

The data I have only goes back to 1996. The market was different enough back then that I'm not sure the same rules would apply. After all, it is always easier to afford a $0.50 comic than a $2.99 comic.

These concerns do come up periodically and, yes, we are still here. But there sure seem to be a lot fewer of us around these days.

The earliest data I have is preorder data for 1996-09. There were 23 comics with orders of 100,000 or more. Four of which broke the 250,000 mark. (Those were the first issues of the Heroes Reborn Fantastic Four, Iron Man, Avengers and Captain America.) The average orders for the top 300 was 36,998 units. The median orders for the top 300 was around 20,900 units. The total units ordered for the top 300 was around 11,096,500 units. To be in the top 25 that month, a comic had to sell 91,400 units. It took 60,100 units to be in the top 50 and 34,000 to be in the top 100 comics.


Compare that to the data for 2008-08. Only four items broke the 100,000 mark with none cracking the 250,000 mark. The average sales for the top 300 was 22,875 and the median was around 12,800. The total units ordered for the top 300 was around 6,862,450 units. To be in the top 25 in August 2008, a comic had to sell only 64,481 units. It took only 45,772 units to be in the top 50 and just 25,542 to be in the top 100 comics.

Sales are down from 12 years ago. The sky may not be falling but it is a lot lower than it used to be. Just because comics have survives so far doesn't mean they will continue to do so.

jon carroll wrote:Zack, 16-17 years ago there was a pull back but that was as much due to the speculator pull out as anything.

The early 1980s were a continuation of the late 1970;s with the death of the mass market and the rise of the direct market. A lot of the struggling companies folded and their properties were bought by other companies. That's how the DCU came into being as we now it with their purchase of Fawcett, Charlton, etc.

This will be an interesting downturn if there is one. Unlike the early 90's, we are down to one distributor. Unlike the 70's and early 80's, there is no real mass market. The rise of the TPB and webcomic I think is upon us.

Right, I'm aware of those things--I'm glad that you brought them up though. I'm referring specifically to things that can be directly tied to a recession and not other comic specific market forces.

johnmayo wrote: The data I have only goes back to 1996. The market was different enough back then that I'm not sure the same rules would apply. After all, it is always easier to afford a $0.50 comic than a $2.99 comic.

These concerns do come up periodically and, yes, we are still here. But there sure seem to be a lot fewer of us around these days.

The earliest data I have is preorder data for 1996-09. There were 23 comics with orders of 100,000 or more. Four of which broke the 250,000 mark. (Those were the first issues of the Heroes Reborn Fantastic Four, Iron Man, Avengers and Captain America.) The average orders for the top 300 was 36,998 units. The median orders for the top 300 was around 20,900 units. The total units ordered for the top 300 was around 11,096,500 units. To be in the top 25 that month, a comic had to sell 91,400 units. It took 60,100 units to be in the top 50 and 34,000 to be in the top 100 comics.


Compare that to the data for 2008-08. Only four items broke the 100,000 mark with none cracking the 250,000 mark. The average sales for the top 300 was 22,875 and the median was around 12,800. The total units ordered for the top 300 was around 6,862,450 units. To be in the top 25 in August 2008, a comic had to sell only 64,481 units. It took only 45,772 units to be in the top 50 and just 25,542 to be in the top 100 comics.

Sales are down from 12 years ago. The sky may not be falling but it is a lot lower than it used to be. Just because comics have survives so far doesn't mean they will continue to do so.

That's what I was looking for. Thank you. So, then what about numbers for 2001-2002? Since that is when a lot of this economic downturn started to hit?

You've pointed out repeatedly, and it's certainly no secret, that direct market numbers are way, WAY down compared to a decade ago. So, then, is it fair to say that these issues are more "localized"; perhaps due to quiet, but significant, changes to how comics and comics properties are being marketed? (i.e. the comic movie boom, an aging fanbase without large numbers of new readers entering the market, a heavy push on trades, the rise in book markets, etc.) Or is it reasonable to correlate these significant number changes to a souring economy?

My personal feeling is that the former is true, but am very interested in any information to the contrary.

zack kruse wrote: That's what I was looking for. Thank you. So, then what about numbers for 2001-2002? Since that is when a lot of this economic downturn started to hit?

You've pointed out repeatedly, and it's certainly no secret, that direct market numbers are way, WAY down compared to a decade ago. So, then, is it fair to say that these issues are more "localized"; perhaps due to quiet, but significant, changes to how comics and comics properties are being marketed? (i.e. the comic movie boom, an aging fanbase without large numbers of new readers entering the market, a heavy push on trades, the rise in book markets, etc.) Or is it reasonable to correlate these significant number changes to a souring economy?

My personal feeling is that the former is true, but am very interested in any information to the contrary.

Around May 2001, the trend for the top 300 seemed to change from a decidedly downward direction to a slightly upward trend. Keep in mind that this is the trend for the top 300, not the trend for the individual titles.

There are tons of variable influencing how comics sell. I think that the economy certainly factors into things. But while the average cover price has increased over the past decade, it doesn't seem to have a direct link to the changes in sales. Obviously there is a connect there but not a direct "the average price go up so the total sales go down" kind of way.