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I always enjoy the Mayo Report and was excited to see how the second wave of New 52 would do and it is a huge success. I know you compared the sales of the numbers 1's to the outgoing issues but I think an interesting comparision is to the other #1's which shows it to be a big success. Crude cut and pastes from your CBR articles

New Ones
Batman Incorporated (2012) 1 96,479
Earth 2 (2012) 1 86,162
Worlds Finest (2012) 1 62,574
Dial H (2012) 1 40,774
Ravagers (2012) 1 39,804
GI Combat (2012) 1 30,364

Assuming that the past curve holds true, those top three titles are in great shape as compared with the original relaunch number 1's. They may not be exact models but you can probably figure the sales curves will be close. Admittedly the big reboot is a special circumstance but I think the curves on a particular title would likely be the same.

First reboot, Sept 2011 numbers, select titles
Batman: the Dark Knight (2011) * 1 98,389
Batman and Robin (2011) * 1 85,242
Nightwing (2011) * 1 62,717
Justice League International (2011) * 1 61,079

Those are the debut numbers where our top three new titles would fall and those all have solid sales. Even if there is some up and down, you would have to like the odds of those three not only surviving, but being good sales. The next two (Dial H and Ravagers) are placing safe but not by much. It was under 40K debut where the titles had problems. I would think those two should survive but depends on what they do with the titles.

First Reboot September 2011
Blue Beetle (2011) * 1 40,003
Captain Atom (2011) * 1 39,699
All Star Western (2011) * 1 39,313
Hawk and Dove (2011) * 1 38,065
Resurrection Man (2011) * 1 37,566
Demon Knights (2011) * 1 37,442
Frankenstein, Agent of Shade (2011) * 1 37,396
Mister Terrific (2011) * 1 37,305
Grifter (2011) * 1 37,100
Voodoo (2011) * 1 36,271
Blackhawks (2011) * 1 36,013
I, Vampire (2011) * 1 35,715

The only one that looks like a title not long for the world is the G.I. Combat. That is also the one with the closest analog title.

September 2011
Static Shock (2011) * 1 34,004
Men of War (2011) * 1 33,739
Omac (2011) * 1 33,581

However, as you noted, GI Combat #1 was doing much better than Men of War 9 would likely have done at least based on sales of #8.
Men of War (2011) 8 9,722

So in that regard it is a success even though the title is not likely to last unless it bucks sales trends.

I have to say have 3 out of 6 do great, and 5 of 6 look like winners is a great ratio. Obviously the best scenario is to keep raising the floor but I am impressed.

I would guess that we might get another Batman and Green Lantern title. The family books do OK but I think the ones that feature the characters do better so maybe a "Batman: Case Files" and a "Hal Jordan Adventures" or something similar? DC seems to know what people want.

This is just me goofing around with the sales numbers and not my opinion on the books. In fact my opinion is likely a barometer of cancellation given my taste in books. How does Night of 1,000 Wolves debut at less than 5,000? I will admit that it is not for everyone's taste but that is just silly. It is a book that gets love from many critics and podcasts but 5K is it. Number 2 will probably not even make the list. So if publishers are monitoring, find stuff I like and do the opposite.

Please let me know if I goofed something up here. Thanks for the podcast.

LA Rabbit wrote:How does Night of 1,000 Wolves debut at less than 5,000? I will admit that it is not for everyone's taste but that is just silly. It is a book that gets love from many critics and podcasts but 5K is it. Number 2 will probably not even make the list. So if publishers are monitoring, find stuff I like and do the opposite.

I'm always sad (but not surprised) when I see a bunch of Indie books that I love & think are high quality hanging out around the bottom of the list.

The direct market loves the "big name" super-heroes........

Well I read the pre-Flashpoint Jonah Hex in issues & trade and enjoyed it. The new All Star Western vol. 2, I hate it. I don't want Jonah Hex in Gotham or Metropolis, Smallville, etc. Keep him in the old West, how hard is that DC. I read 7 or 8 issues of this & gave up on it. It just wasn't for me. I put my money towards Hellboy Library Editions & other indies. Overall, the new DC is slowly losing me. I buy a few issues but I do by trades & HCs of Pre & Post Crisis stuff like Batman & will save my pennies for the upcoming expanded Death of Superman Omnibus all in one volume that includes everything from the start to the finish -- Death, World w/out & Return of Superman. The only new 52 character I got hooked on to is Catwoman in issues prior & moved over to collecting in trade format.

Matthew

mguy1977 wrote:Overall, the new DC is slowly losing me.

I am in the same boat personally, although to their credit, they did get me to buy a bunch of the new titles during the first reboot, and I also got the 2nd and 3rd issues of some but I am just dropping them off. I am down to about 6 or 7 series at this point.

LA Rabbit wrote:

mguy1977 wrote:Overall, the new DC is slowly losing me.

I am in the same boat personally, although to their credit, they did get me to buy a bunch of the new titles during the first reboot, and I also got the 2nd and 3rd issues of some but I am just dropping them off. I am down to about 6 or 7 series at this point.

I'm actually up a few titles than what I had after the initial re-launch. I'm not getting all the same titles but overall I'm up a bit and WAY up from before the re-launch.

I think I'm down a bit but only because DC made the wise decision to limit the number of titles they publish each month.

They definitely made $$ off of me by the reboot.

Prereboot:
Batwoman
Green Lantern

Post-reboot:
Batwoman
Green Lantern
Action
JLA
Batman
Batman & Robin
Flash
JL Dark
Stormwatch
Swamp Thing
Animal Man

So that's a net of 9 monthly comics that got me to buy for at least a year. Not bad. (although 4 of the 9 titles didn't exist in the old52 - so not really fair to say I'm buying them b/c they were rebooted - if they'd been introed in the old52, would have bought them anyway).

e
L nny

Enjoyed the new episode as always. I wonder if the event cross-over bump is not just a negation of the typical decline? As you noted everything drops.

I really couldn't believe what a difference a name makes?
From your May numbers column:
131 13.96 $2.99 MAR Thunderbolts 174 18,791 173 19,017 -226 -1.19% 0

Now that it is Dark Avengers (from your June numbers column):
52 30.35 $2.99 MAR Dark Avengers 175 39,534 0
63 26.57 $2.99 MAR Dark Avengers 176 34,610 175 39,534 -4,924 -12.46% 0


It freakin' doubled? I sort of understand the re-numbering gimmick but the renaming thing I thought would not work. So Dark Avengers gives Thunderbolts a big boost. Now they did add a new roster, but I don't think anyone is suggesting that they characters they added (except for arguably Sklar, they are all D list) are the reason. I don't know if that is just lazy LCS owners that see "Avengers" in the title and boost their orders or if any of those will see new customers. That is one gimmick that succeeded way past my estimate.

I thought about doing the comparision drops on the second wave to the first wave again but passed. It didn't seem to add anything that the first post doesn't say.

I think Booms strategy for the $1 books is good and they are targeting people like me (LCS guy with no previews). I think they realize that the $1 will get artificially inflated first sales, but it is worth it to find the eventual extra readers that would not have tried the issue.

When I walk into the shop, I see the new comics lined up. They have the Marvel and the DC section. I pretty much know what I am going to do but I will browse and once in a great while I surprise myself and grab (or drop) something new.

After Marvel and DC, there is the mix of Boom, Dark Horse, Image, IDW, Aspen, Dynamite. All those are fighting for my limited attention and dollar bills. Past that you have the Red 5, Big Dog Ink, Antarctic Press, Moonstone, Archie, Oni, Bongo, Zenoscope, Th3rd World (I must be missing some) that are also fighting for my dollar. These ones get spottier distribution so there is the risk that I will miss issues.

So these companies have to do what they can to stand out. They can try different strategies going after licenses, named creators, specialized content, etc. Th3rd World and Red 5 have such a good track record with me that they get a leg up with me but they also have only a few titles. If they had more titles, there is the risk that the "hit" ratio would go down.

Boom wants to kick out more than a few titles and they seem to span the genres so I think the Red 5/Th3rd World model isn't for them. I picked up Valen #1 for a buck and have been buying the whole series. I might have picked up the first issue anyway but at $3.99 I doubt it. No guarantee but they way they did it got them the sale. That being said, other $1 issues have failed with me but I do buy all of the ones I see. I don't buy all the first issues for Image, Dark Horse, Marvel, DC, IDW, etc so they have a foot in the door just about automatically. The question is does the loss leader on #1 get balanced out by the few extra readers that they land?

Thanks again.

I always like the Mayo Report but this most recent one really got me thinking. Great Job. You always point out neat correlations and it is fun for all of us to start spinning theories of causation. I guess "theories" is being over-generous but it is fun nonetheless. Thanks. Apologies for typos but when I get wound up there is no stopping but to get all the poison out at once.

I agree that I would like titles to build in steady sales but the problem is that no one really know how to do that. I think if it was easy, someone would do it. The only steady riser I can think of is the Walking Dead. The DC reboot has helped most of DC's titles. If you look at August 2010 numbers versus August 2012, you will see Justice League has doubled, Batman has almost doubled. Wonder Woman is up. Some titles are down (Green Arrow and Birds of Prey) but as you note most of the titles that are up are sinking at various rates.

I think it was smart of Image to cash in on #100. Get that money and make those sales. Yes, it is a one month shot but those sales are sales. I would not upset that applecart with their process. I understand that they potentially could have kicked out 16 more issues, but if that would require a compromise in quality (not sure if it would, but saying it could) then don't do it. Maybe it will grow for a long time but maybe something will kill it and that something could be issues that were rushed out. I think with a title like that I am not sure inventory issues or things like that would not derail your momentum.

I have thought about the issue of less titles from Marvel and/or DC. They would clearly be leaving money on the table but if you made the main continuity 25 issues (with maybe 5 to 10 Vertigo, outside continuity, kid books, what have you), then I might just get them all. Back in the 80's if was fun to buy pretty much any garbage Marvel put out. It felt like this cohesive thing (even though it clearly wasn't). Further, editorial control should be easier to coordinate with fewer books to foster that shared feeling and it would be easier to have the better talent on all your books. Once you break that habit of buying everything (or just about), it gets easier to drop them and I think Bob would agree. Still they would probably be leaving too much money on the table by having too few titles.

DC did try new characters in the book. Batwing is a new guy. Admittedly he is part of the Bat-family but he is new. Unfortunately his sales are low (especially for a Bat-Book). It seems like new characters (or reboot characters from the past) just don't do well from Marvel or DC.

Not sure what draws people to comics. Even worse, I don't even know if I know what really draws me to a particular book. One of the things that makes John a good podcaster is he is very thoughtful. I know I am not as thoughtful. My tastes also change with my mood and time. Walking Dead took till my third time (reading the same stuff) to get me into it. Sometimes I like getting suggestions from my LCS, sometimes I don't. Even if I like a book, I may not analyze why. I liked the O.M.A.C. reboot. I did not read the old OMAC books, the creative team was not one that normally would interest me, but for some reason the book just clicked. Further, some books I think about but that was one that I just enjoyed and didn't ask why. Other books I may think more about in an intellectual way. I do know that when I do a spot as a guest on an unnamed podcast, it does force you to look at what you like and why which is useful. I just don't do it often and hope I am not alone. Besides as you guys note, if buyers get too introspective they could also elect to buy less.

I know the movie and TV business spends a ton on marketing (secret sources ) but there is debate about how much emphasis that data should get (and how much it does get). There is no way for the comic business to really get that much hard data, there little Nielsen survey aside. Plenty of problems with those sorts of surveys but any information is probably helpful at this point.

I don't read previews but I understand that it is a massive book so getting the attention of customers is probably an issue. Given the size, I would think just getting someone to read a particular description would be difficult. I know I feel like there is no way I can track every comic that comes out. One thing I like about podcasts is they turn me on to books. Ideally, one would have a brief, eye-catching solicit but what facts draw people to books? I guess that is the question.

The collector/variant cover issue may also be an issue of whether that is the only way to get that extra money out of them. If collector X goes in and reads 5 titles and buys 5 extra premium covers, would she buy more titles if those premium covers did not exist? I don't know. Certainly to the extent there are people that are speculators, I can't seem them spending as much. The counter to that is if the industry grew and was more popular, the speculators would have more to speculate on. However we are hopefully talking about growing this market efficiently, so it would be tougher for the speculators to make money on the current inefficiency. I would think the best money makers would be to be buy multiple image #1 books and wait for the Chews, Walking Deads, Non-Players, etc to hit it. You would eat it on quite a few books so maybe just easier to work the cover market.

One idea to grow sales would be to address returnability. I know some of the new 52 offered partial credit for returns. I hope that worked out for DC. But the more, I think of it, the less likely it seems to be. I was thinking that, less risk for retailer would mean they would potentially stock more which puts it in front of potential new customers. But the counter to that is, are people at the LCS not seeing Marvel and DC books aplenty now? They certainly play games with covers and whatnot to get sales versus each other but I doubt the problem is lack of shelf space. Although if they could take the 1 - 3 month hit, it would be neat to see if one could offer such great deals, they would suck up all the shelf space of the other. Not sure an LCS would do that so probably not worth the risk.

I was wondering if it would help the smaller publishers more. Would exposure to more books drive sales? I would think so, but that is a guess. Even with a return credit, you would still need the LCS to order the things, rack them and then have customers buy them. Boom does try different things, including the $1 first issue. Would this system be better? I tried to work some numbers on the dollar first issue versus returnability credit but it turned into too much guessing. I would need to know how much the book costs to produce, how much it is sold to the LCS and how much Diamond makes. Obviously with returnability, there are additional printing costs that work against it but I was hoping that maybe if people saw more books, it would encourage them to try different things. That may be crazy thinking.

Ok -- my thoughts as I was listening this month:

* I was reading articles on the DC Implosion and Canceled Comics Cavalcade last week. The 'implosion' took DC from 32 to 23 titles. 32 was their max. 32.

Imagine how much better the quality would be today with 32 titles as opposed to 60 some titles. Same for Marvel.

* I think you guys should do a round table on the collecting habits again after the latest thread. Some very interesting stuff there. My read is that many people's views have changed over the last several years.

* I think the reason Image #1's do so well in the aftermarket is that they are what I would term 'true' #1's for the most part. They aren't reboots or renumbering of existing characters or concepts. They are truly new. So when an Image book takes off, there is more value in the #1.

Marvel and DC are in a tough spot now because as you guys mention, nobody has a truly great new concept or character is going to take it to Marvel or DC -- they are going to take it to a company with better terms.

This why I don't understand why Paul Cornell doesn't take his great UK based team stories to Image instead of moving them around at DC and Marvel. They are clearly portable and it is his strength.

Trev wrote:Marvel and DC are in a tough spot now because as you guys mention, nobody has a truly great new concept or character is going to take it to Marvel or DC -- they are going to take it to a company with better terms.

Do you really think they're in a tough spot because they don't get new creations from people? If I want to read about X-Men or Spider-Man I have to go to Marvel. Same for DC with Batman or Green Lantern. They're only in a tough spot because of the business side of things. If Marvel gave me Spider-Man on a monthly basis for $2.99 or less (minus the DCBS discount) I would be buying Spider-Man every month.

boshuda wrote:

Trev wrote:Marvel and DC are in a tough spot now because as you guys mention, nobody has a truly great new concept or character is going to take it to Marvel or DC -- they are going to take it to a company with better terms.

Do you really think they're in a tough spot because they don't get new creations from people? If I want to read about X-Men or Spider-Man I have to go to Marvel. Same for DC with Batman or Green Lantern. They're only in a tough spot because of the business side of things. If Marvel gave me Spider-Man on a monthly basis for $2.99 or less (minus the DCBS discount) I would be buying Spider-Man every month.

I think it is the motivation for the constant reboots. They are built on the existing IP. There is very little room for new IP, just new combinations of the existing characters, gimmicks, and stunts.

After what's happened since Kirkman's manifesto, they are never going to get a cool and interesting character or concept.

Unless they change their terms, which would be insanely difficult and basically pointless with their current model.

Trev wrote:

boshuda wrote:

Trev wrote:Marvel and DC are in a tough spot now because as you guys mention, nobody has a truly great new concept or character is going to take it to Marvel or DC -- they are going to take it to a company with better terms.

Do you really think they're in a tough spot because they don't get new creations from people? If I want to read about X-Men or Spider-Man I have to go to Marvel. Same for DC with Batman or Green Lantern. They're only in a tough spot because of the business side of things. If Marvel gave me Spider-Man on a monthly basis for $2.99 or less (minus the DCBS discount) I would be buying Spider-Man every month.

I think it is the motivation for the constant reboots. They are built on the existing IP. There is very little room for new IP, just new combinations of the existing characters, gimmicks, and stunts.

After what's happened since Kirkman's manifesto, they are never going to get a cool and interesting character or concept.

Unless they change their terms, which would be insanely difficult and basically pointless with their current model.

I don't see the lack of new IP as a problem. Not really. If they feel the need for a 'new' character or concept just dust off some forgotten doofus and have the writer and artist make them relevant. I think people who read Spider-Man don't care if it's Doc Oc this month, the Lizard next month, and Venom the month after than. Rinse and repeat. I would read Spidey to have him drop quips while swinging around pummeling the bad guys. Spidey doesn't need new IP.

I suspect the motivation for the constant reboots are so the marketing department has a new headline to spoil in USA Today, and to get the issue #1 sales bump.

If they view lack of new product as a problem I think they're wrong. They have 40? 50? years of history to draw on, and since Hollywood is hell-bent on retelling the origin over and over and over again, you'll never get out of the first decade of a character's history. New IP doesn't come with the warm fuzzies and nostalgia of a long-established character. The lack of new product is a strength - if they would embrace it. I don't need a lot of reboots to enjoy these characters. Batman's parents are dead, and so now Batman patrols Toronto harassing people in subways. The X-Men are mutants, which means they get their powers for free. Superman is an alien who can fly and hates green rocks. You don't need to explain that every time, just tell interesting stories with these characters.

Trev wrote:

boshuda wrote:

Trev wrote:Marvel and DC are in a tough spot now because as you guys mention, nobody has a truly great new concept or character is going to take it to Marvel or DC -- they are going to take it to a company with better terms.

Do you really think they're in a tough spot because they don't get new creations from people? If I want to read about X-Men or Spider-Man I have to go to Marvel. Same for DC with Batman or Green Lantern. They're only in a tough spot because of the business side of things. If Marvel gave me Spider-Man on a monthly basis for $2.99 or less (minus the DCBS discount) I would be buying Spider-Man every month.

I think it is the motivation for the constant reboots. They are built on the existing IP. There is very little room for new IP, just new combinations of the existing characters, gimmicks, and stunts.

After what's happened since Kirkman's manifesto, they are never going to get a cool and interesting character or concept.

Unless they change their terms, which would be insanely difficult and basically pointless with their current model.

It also seems like new characters from the big 2 don't do well in the sales. People want the old names. Look at Batwing, that thing is on life support. Admittedly that is rooted in the Bat-family but I think if he was "Owl-Wing" the sales would be worse. The Big 2 seems to do best with their top properties and crossovers and events.

I sort of see going off on your own but I don't think that is generally much of a good chance of making money unless you hit the Hollywood jackpot. How many non-Big 2 new super hero books are out there? I think if you take "Amazing, Incredible Man" to Image, you had better hope for a movie deal because you ain't likely to be rolling in it from the comic sales. Much of the big indy hits lately are not supers, they are the other genres. You do have Invincible but I think Kirkman is a unique individual and unlikely for others to find the same success. I am not sure you wouldn't be better off peddling it to Marvel or DC if it got you a couple of books to do simultaneously. Easier for writers over artist types as writers can work on a bunch of books at once. I just don't know that indy comic creators are making big bank off of comic sales. I know they should make more per book as they own it but the sales are usually correspondingly lower. I would think the reason to go solo would be more artistic than financial but I am not a pro. If you are a writer, you can do both simultaneously (like Hickman). Tougher for an artist, but plenty of big names at the Big 2 and in the indy world.

You guys are stuck on superheroes. Yes, the big two dominate there but there are plenty of books that are great where it just happens to be a big two character and the book could do very well with another character. Winter soldier, demon knights, Frankenstein. Those could work just as well with non big two analogs.

My point is that in the post kirkman world you would be foolish if you had what you thought was a great concept or character to just give it to the big two. Creators are going to try image or idw first.

The big two now are about the toys you can play with, not building new toys. Not in any meaningful way.