drew wrote:
+3 or +7 or day&date (w/10min delay) - 60%+ of us are still zipping through commercials so thats why we will continue see things like Pitch with the show seemingly continuing until you see the gatorade placement - thats the direction tv is going - it just going to take the stodgy old timers some time to catch up to the shift - hope im still alive when the geezers who volunteer to keep tv diarys no longer control what i watch - maybe then they will cancel 2 broke girls
So many things here are just flat out false on multiple levels.
drew wrote:
+3 or +7 or day&date (w/10min delay) - 60%+ of us are still zipping through commercials
Who/what you and your friends like is a good way to make decisions on what you watch. It's an awful basis to evaluate a business though. The truth is 60% aren't zipping through commercials. I happen to have the national C+3 and the +7 ratings for 18-49 for the week of October 3-9, 2016. Let's look at just how many people are zipping through the commercials. For Scripted shows the average C+3 rating is 1.48 the average +7 is 2.45. Meaning only about 39.6% zip through the commercials. While this number is not insignificant it also is still substantially less than half and no where near 60%.
The second and most important point: Renewal and Cancelation decisions are based on relative strength not a pure rating number. Of all the shows that aired that week, there are only two that showed any real improvement to their relative rank on the network with extended viewing windows. Those two shows were The Blacklist (NBC) and How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) neither of which is in any danger of cancelation. So for the purposes of predicting which shows will survive looking at the C+3 and +7 ratings makes no difference.
drew wrote: hope im still alive when the geezers who volunteer to keep tv diarys no longer control what i watch - maybe then they will cancel 2 broke girls
The old style diaries are mostly gone and are not used for national averages (what we are talking about) in any way. The top 25 largest markets are measured with what are called "local people meters". These devices are part of the television and each member of the household must put in their own code when watching, it makes you put your code in each time you change the channel or every 30-45 minutes to ensure you haven't fallen asleep or a different household member isn't now watching.
Those markets are:
Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland-Akron, Dallas-Fr. Worth, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland OR, Sacramento, San Francisco, Seattle-Tacoma, St. Louis, Tampa-St. Petersburg & Washington DC.
The Next 31 largest markets are measured with a set-meter. These are similar devices that actually measure when the tv is on what is playing on it. The difference is these do not require the person watching to put in a unique code. These households keep diaries during the 4 sweeps months but they are used only demographic information for the local market. The viewing that is done on these meters is part of the national average put a rather complex predictive algorithm assigns demographic information and the diaries have no affect.
Those markets are:
Albuquerque, Austin, Birmingham, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus OH, Dayton, Ft. Myers-Naples, Greensboro NC, Greenville-Spartanburg SC, Hartfor CT, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Knoxville, Las Vegas, Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee, Nashville, New Orleans, Norfolk-Newport News VA, Oklahoma City, Providence, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego, Tulsa & West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce
The remaining 154 markets use diaries but only for the 4 sweep months and those are only for local ratings data, they have zero effect on the national numbers we are talking about here. Ratings for those markets aren't even produced the other 8 months each year. Those numbers are use to sell local ads in those markets not national commercials.
To give an idea of the market sizes we are talking the 10 largest of these markets are:
Grand Rapids, Harrisburg PA, Fresno-Visalia, Wilkes-Barre Scranton, Little Rock-Pine Bluff, Mobile AL, Albany NY, Lexington KY, Wichita KS & Honolulu. And they only keep getting smaller from there.
Any measurement when used represents the age group it is meant to represent only. So even a geezer with a diary is only included in ratings for geezers.
As John and I discussed a few tv ratings episodes back the people meters are for many reasons so much more accurate. However what most people found most interesting was what changes we saw when ratings started being based on meters and not diaries. Diaries helped "good" shows and hurt "bad" shows. What I mean, is people tended to list what they wanted to be known for watching rather than what they actually watched with the diary system. If someone had a favorite show like (we will pick the highest rated scripted show) Big Bang Theory they would report it in the diary even if they didn't watch that week. While doing things like staying up all night watching Brady Bunch reruns or vegging out on a Saturday watching a Kardashians marathon tended not to get recorded in the diaries. Again the affect of the more accurate meters was not what one might have expected.
As for older viewers. Old viewers are counted but don't end up in any of the 18-49 ratings we talk about, they tend to only really be counted in the total viewership numbers. Robert Seidman one of the original founders of Tv by the Numbers now runs a site called Sports TV Ratings. One of his favorite things to point out is what he calls the "Gunsmoke affect" pointing out that in total viewers the 3-4Pm and 4-5PM Eastern Gunsmoke that airs on TV Land Classic often has more total viewers than many basketball games, hockey games, smaller college football games and other sports programing like Sports Center, Pardon the Interruption, First Take, Undisputed, Around the Horn, Sports nation, Mike & Mike, Highly Questionable, His & Hers etc. Again this is not useful rating information but it does point out just how many older viewers there actually are, and they don't watch the same things as those 18-49.