2015-2016 Television Ratings

[doctormo]

The TCA Winter Press Tour has great news for fans of the CW's DC superhero shows! http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-f ... ral-961868

Also, another DC tv show gets resurrected in the form of an animated series.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-f ... eed-961873

[drew]

episode had no mention of walking dead?!? which is a) based on a comic book and b) highest rated scripted show on TV

[drew]

think you called all these Sam - well, besides the animated constantine - meh...

In a surprise move, The CW has given early renewals to seven of its original series for the 2017-2018 season, including all of the comic book series and a few other fan-favorites. Supernatural is returning for a record 13th season, Supergirl was renewed for season three, The Flash will return for season four, Arrow got a season six, DC’s Legends of Tomorrow earned a season three, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend was renewed for season three and Jane the Virgin gets a season four. Plus, Constantine–the DC Comics/NBC live-action series that was canceled just a few years ago–is returning as an animated series on digital platform CW Seed with Matt Ryan reprising his title role as the voice of John Constantine.

i better get season 3 of izombie if its in the can - and at that point why not greenlight a 4th

The only CW original series still up for renewal/cancelation are all the midseason slate: The Originals, iZombie, The 100 and new series Riverdale (it was already announced this summer that The Vampire Diaries will end after this season). Pedowitz said that he’s “hopeful” that The Originals will return, and to stay tuned to how the midseason series perform this year.

http://nerdist.com/the-cw-just-renewed- ... celed-one/

[fudd71]

Sam - are the neilson/arbitron/etc folks working on a system that actually tracks and reflects how the 18-49 viewers watch tv - i dont no anyone who watches scripted tv same day anymore

if they dont its gonna be just a bunch of blue hairs watching depends and Metamucil commercials

couple of points

Neilson has introduced a million different ratings systems over the years, currently they offer live+same, commercial+3, live+3, live+7, live+30 and Social active (mentions on social media). They also have a new matrix coming that will include even longer periods of time and combined viewing on streaming services. The biggest problem is while Neilson keeps trying to provide these types of different measurements but advertisers don't care about anything other that Commercial+3. The reason I track and report on live+same is it is the most similar to the commercial+3.

While you and I and other like us rarely if ever watch live that simply isn't true across the board. And I know personally I watch quite a bit the same day. On Average the current 18-49 American watched 3 minutes more of television per week in 2016 than in 2015. About 92% is done in the first 7 days after air, 89% in the first 3 days and over 85% same day. Also note only about 60% of homes have a DVR.

episode had no mention of walking dead?!? which is a) based on a comic book and b) highest rated scripted show on TV

You are correct I will include Walking Dead ratings in future episodes, I just don't track cable ratings for a variety of reason. The biggest reason being ratings are not nearly as predictive of a show future as they are on broadcast.

Rating (18-49) for the most reason season bellow.

10/23/16 -- 8.36
10/30/16 -- 6.09
11/6/16 -- 5.68
11/13/16 -- 5.43
11/20/16 -- 5.17
11/27/16 -- 4.90
12/4/16 -- 4.95
12/11/16 -- 5.09

season 7 average 5.71

for past history
season 6 average 6.48
season 5 average 7.36
season 4 average 6.77
season 3 average 5.52

[JohnMayo]

episode had no mention of walking dead?!? which is a) based on a comic book and b) highest rated scripted show on TV

We've been focusing on network television. So other shows haven't been mentioned on these episodes either like Doctor Who.

As for Walking Dead specifically, I tend not to focus too much on shows I don't watch so I hadn't even noticed the omission.

[drew]

episode had no mention of walking dead?!? which is a) based on a comic book and b) highest rated scripted show on TV

We've been focusing on network television. So other shows haven't been mentioned on these episodes either like Doctor Who.

As for Walking Dead specifically, I tend not to focus too much on shows I don't watch so I hadn't even noticed the omission.

Big miss That was part of previous episode (maybe title should say Network)

[JohnMayo]

As Sam said, we'll try to include some of the other genre shows like Walking Dead moving forward. While I don't watch the show, I agree that it is well worth including in these episodes.

[fudd71]

As Sam said, we'll try to include some of the other genre shows like Walking Dead moving forward. While I don't watch the show, I agree that it is well worth including in these episodes.

Like I said, I don't normally track cable ratings, they simply aren't as important. Cable makes the most of their revenue from subscriber fees not ad sales, there is also almost infinite real-estate (time slots) as cable networks don't have to provide new content 6 days a week for 36-40 weeks a year. I can't think of a cable network other than news channels that average even 10 hours of new primetime content a week.

All that being said, I'm happy to gather and have ratings data for shows listeners are interested in. Remember not all cable channel subscribe to Neilson ratings tracking, so in some cases numbers simply don't exist. What are some other shows fellow listeners might be interested in? I'm happy to take suggestions and see what I can do. On a side note a big thank you to John's sister Kay. The time we did cover cable ratings on a tv episode Kay provided me a great list of potential shows listeners might be interested in.

[drew]

Sam - are the neilson/arbitron/etc folks working on a system that actually tracks and reflects how the 18-49 viewers watch tv - i dont no anyone who watches scripted tv same day anymore

if they dont its gonna be just a bunch of blue hairs watching depends and Metamucil commercials

couple of points

Neilson has introduced a million different ratings systems over the years, currently they offer live+same, commercial+3, live+3, live+7, live+30 and Social active (mentions on social media). They also have a new matrix coming that will include even longer periods of time and combined viewing on streaming services. The biggest problem is while Neilson keeps trying to provide these types of different measurements but advertisers don't care about anything other that Commercial+3. The reason I track and report on live+same is it is the most similar to the commercial+3.

While you and I and other like us rarely if ever watch live that simply isn't true across the board. And I know personally I watch quite a bit the same day. On Average the current 18-49 American watched 3 minutes more of television per week in 2016 than in 2015. About 92% is done in the first 7 days after air, 89% in the first 3 days and over 85% same day. Also note only about 60% of homes have a DVR.

episode had no mention of walking dead?!? which is a) based on a comic book and b) highest rated scripted show on TV

You are correct I will include Walking Dead ratings in future episodes, I just don't track cable ratings for a variety of reason. The biggest reason being ratings are not nearly as predictive of a show future as they are on broadcast.

Rating (18-49) for the most reason season bellow.

10/23/16 -- 8.36
10/30/16 -- 6.09
11/6/16 -- 5.68
11/13/16 -- 5.43
11/20/16 -- 5.17
11/27/16 -- 4.90
12/4/16 -- 4.95
12/11/16 -- 5.09

season 7 average 5.71

for past history
season 6 average 6.48
season 5 average 7.36
season 4 average 6.77
season 3 average 5.52

very interesting stuff thank you - same day + 7 sounds about right, that covers most of us

[fudd71]

very interesting stuff thank you - same day + 7 sounds about right, that covers most of us

The problem with +7 ratings is they are much higher than the commercial +3 (in some cases the C+3 are even lower that the live+same). Remember traditional broadcasters still (and this is changing) make most of their revenue selling ads. Ratings exist as a tool for advertisers to know what they are getting for their ad money. The viewer is often under the mistaken impression they are the consumers of television networks, they are not. Advertisers are the consumers of television networks and viewers are the product they purchase. Regardless of what any viewers believes about the quality or artistic merit of a program, if the program doesn't produce ad views to sell it isn't pulling its weight in the network budget. While reporting the number of people that watched a show +7 or +30 or at anytime without watching the commercials is great for PR it does nothing for the bottom line. It's kind of like a comic publisher over shipping and saying sales are way up

[drew]

very interesting stuff thank you - same day + 7 sounds about right, that covers most of us

The problem with +7 ratings is they are much higher than the commercial +3 (in some cases the C+3 are even lower that the live+same). Remember traditional broadcasters still (and this is changing) make most of their revenue selling ads. Ratings exist as a tool for advertisers to know what they are getting for their ad money. The viewer is often under the mistaken impression they are the consumers of television networks, they are not. Advertisers are the consumers of television networks and viewers are the product they purchase. Regardless of what any viewers believes about the quality or artistic merit of a program, if the program doesn't produce ad views to sell it isn't pulling its weight in the network budget. While reporting the number of people that watched a show +7 or +30 or at anytime without watching the commercials is great for PR it does nothing for the bottom line. It's kind of like a comic publisher over shipping and saying sales are way up

+3 or +7 or day&date (w/10min delay) - 60%+ of us are still zipping through commercials so thats why we will continue see things like Pitch with the show seemingly continuing until you see the gatorade placement - thats the direction tv is going - it just going to take the stodgy old timers some time to catch up to the shift - hope im still alive when the geezers who volunteer to keep tv diarys no longer control what i watch - maybe then they will cancel 2 broke girls

[fudd71]

+3 or +7 or day&date (w/10min delay) - 60%+ of us are still zipping through commercials so thats why we will continue see things like Pitch with the show seemingly continuing until you see the gatorade placement - thats the direction tv is going - it just going to take the stodgy old timers some time to catch up to the shift - hope im still alive when the geezers who volunteer to keep tv diarys no longer control what i watch - maybe then they will cancel 2 broke girls

So many things here are just flat out false on multiple levels.

+3 or +7 or day&date (w/10min delay) - 60%+ of us are still zipping through commercials

Who/what you and your friends like is a good way to make decisions on what you watch. It's an awful basis to evaluate a business though. The truth is 60% aren't zipping through commercials. I happen to have the national C+3 and the +7 ratings for 18-49 for the week of October 3-9, 2016. Let's look at just how many people are zipping through the commercials. For Scripted shows the average C+3 rating is 1.48 the average +7 is 2.45. Meaning only about 39.6% zip through the commercials. While this number is not insignificant it also is still substantially less than half and no where near 60%.

The second and most important point: Renewal and Cancelation decisions are based on relative strength not a pure rating number. Of all the shows that aired that week, there are only two that showed any real improvement to their relative rank on the network with extended viewing windows. Those two shows were The Blacklist (NBC) and How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) neither of which is in any danger of cancelation. So for the purposes of predicting which shows will survive looking at the C+3 and +7 ratings makes no difference.

hope im still alive when the geezers who volunteer to keep tv diarys no longer control what i watch - maybe then they will cancel 2 broke girls

The old style diaries are mostly gone and are not used for national averages (what we are talking about) in any way. The top 25 largest markets are measured with what are called "local people meters". These devices are part of the television and each member of the household must put in their own code when watching, it makes you put your code in each time you change the channel or every 30-45 minutes to ensure you haven't fallen asleep or a different household member isn't now watching.

Those markets are:
Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland-Akron, Dallas-Fr. Worth, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland OR, Sacramento, San Francisco, Seattle-Tacoma, St. Louis, Tampa-St. Petersburg & Washington DC.

The Next 31 largest markets are measured with a set-meter. These are similar devices that actually measure when the tv is on what is playing on it. The difference is these do not require the person watching to put in a unique code. These households keep diaries during the 4 sweeps months but they are used only demographic information for the local market. The viewing that is done on these meters is part of the national average put a rather complex predictive algorithm assigns demographic information and the diaries have no affect.

Those markets are:
Albuquerque, Austin, Birmingham, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus OH, Dayton, Ft. Myers-Naples, Greensboro NC, Greenville-Spartanburg SC, Hartfor CT, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Knoxville, Las Vegas, Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee, Nashville, New Orleans, Norfolk-Newport News VA, Oklahoma City, Providence, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego, Tulsa & West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce

The remaining 154 markets use diaries but only for the 4 sweep months and those are only for local ratings data, they have zero effect on the national numbers we are talking about here. Ratings for those markets aren't even produced the other 8 months each year. Those numbers are use to sell local ads in those markets not national commercials.

To give an idea of the market sizes we are talking the 10 largest of these markets are:
Grand Rapids, Harrisburg PA, Fresno-Visalia, Wilkes-Barre Scranton, Little Rock-Pine Bluff, Mobile AL, Albany NY, Lexington KY, Wichita KS & Honolulu. And they only keep getting smaller from there.

Any measurement when used represents the age group it is meant to represent only. So even a geezer with a diary is only included in ratings for geezers.

As John and I discussed a few tv ratings episodes back the people meters are for many reasons so much more accurate. However what most people found most interesting was what changes we saw when ratings started being based on meters and not diaries. Diaries helped "good" shows and hurt "bad" shows. What I mean, is people tended to list what they wanted to be known for watching rather than what they actually watched with the diary system. If someone had a favorite show like (we will pick the highest rated scripted show) Big Bang Theory they would report it in the diary even if they didn't watch that week. While doing things like staying up all night watching Brady Bunch reruns or vegging out on a Saturday watching a Kardashians marathon tended not to get recorded in the diaries. Again the affect of the more accurate meters was not what one might have expected.

As for older viewers. Old viewers are counted but don't end up in any of the 18-49 ratings we talk about, they tend to only really be counted in the total viewership numbers. Robert Seidman one of the original founders of Tv by the Numbers now runs a site called Sports TV Ratings. One of his favorite things to point out is what he calls the "Gunsmoke affect" pointing out that in total viewers the 3-4Pm and 4-5PM Eastern Gunsmoke that airs on TV Land Classic often has more total viewers than many basketball games, hockey games, smaller college football games and other sports programing like Sports Center, Pardon the Interruption, First Take, Undisputed, Around the Horn, Sports nation, Mike & Mike, Highly Questionable, His & Hers etc. Again this is not useful rating information but it does point out just how many older viewers there actually are, and they don't watch the same things as those 18-49.

[drew]

Also note only about 60% of homes have a DVR.

i equate DVR ownership with zipping through commercials, what am i missing?

[fudd71]

Also note only about 60% of homes have a DVR.

i equate DVR ownership with zipping through commercials, what am i missing?

Two things:

People that have DVRs don't always use them or forget to FF threw the commercials. I know this happens to me personally all the time, I sit threw a commercial or two and then think, "I should FF threw this". Plus many people do still watch things live, not everything is recorded.

60% is total households, not age adjusted for individuals. The number of people that own Tivo or other private DVR boxes is very small. Most DVRs in households are a product of having upper tier cable or satellite service where the DVR is included as the box with the upper tier packages. Looking at Cable and satellite service numbers we find that "older" head of households (40-65 year olds) have those upper tier cable and satellite packages in the highest numbers. So many of the individuals in the households with a DVR might be over 49 and not counted in 18-49 ratings. You can break that down further and note that many households have a single DVR but multiple televisions. Again the head of house tends to get that main TV, so while 50+ mom and dad watch the DVR teenage and 20 something children living at home might only have live in the television in their room or where they watch most often.

[drew]

People that have DVRs don't always use them or forget to FF threw the commercials. I know this happens to me personally all the time, I sit threw a commercial or two and then think, "I should FF threw this". Plus many people do still watch things live, not everything is recorded.

really?!? sports maybe i can see that (but even then i still pause for 15-20 minutes to zip through them-perhaps i am a just a renaissance man)

60% is total households, not age adjusted for individuals. The number of people that own Tivo or other private DVR boxes is very small. Most DVRs in households are a product of having upper tier cable or satellite service where the DVR is included as the box with the upper tier packages. Looking at Cable and satellite service numbers we find that "older" head of households (40-65 year olds) have those upper tier cable and satellite packages in the highest numbers. So many of the individuals in the households with a DVR might be over 49 and not counted in 18-49 ratings.

60 percent still a big number no matter how you slice it up - and i would contend DVR owners are younger than over 49 but maybe you are correct

teenage and 20 something children living at home might only have live in the television in their room or where they watch most often.

anecdotally seems 9 outta 10 of these ^^^^ are netflix, youtube and hacked firestix i'd bet

do you have visibility for subscriber numbers for premium/stream tv - netflix, amazon prime, hulu vs. HBO, showtime, starz - whos up/whos down? westworld was THE water cooler show and the most pirated of all time but does that equate to growth in subscribers?

anyone in walking dead rating territory total viewers?

atlanta was a great show but i would guess infinitesimal numbers being so niche and on fx, how do those channels make their decisions about renewals/cancelations? cost based vs. close to syndication?

thats for your patience through all these questions...